Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Pesticide Residues in Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) Water and Pulp Using Bioconcentration Factors, Dietary Intake, and Monte Carlo Simulation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5132/eec.2026.01.07Palabras clave:
coconut water, coconut pulp, food safety, fungicide, mathematical modelling, pesticideResumen
Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) is a nutritionally valuable crop extensively cultivated in tropical regions, with fresh coconut water and pulp being consumed worldwide. However, commercial production frequently relies on pesticides — including abamectin, azoxystrobin, cyproconazole, difenoconazole, dimethoate, imidacloprid, metalaxyl, and thiamethoxam — that may accumulate in these edible matrices, creating potential dietary exposure pathways. This study presents a comprehensive probabilistic assessment of bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and human health risks for eight pesticides (abamectin, azoxystrobin, cyproconazole, difenoconazole, dimethoate, imidacloprid, metalaxyl, and thiamethoxam) in coconut water and pulp. Using Monte Carlo simulations (100,000 iterations per pesticide) that integrate plant physiological parameters, pesticide physicochemical properties, and residue concentrations, we estimated probability distributions for compartment-specific BCFs and daily intakes for adult consumers. Sensitivity analysis using Spearman rank correlations identified the most influential parameters driving risk uncertainty. Based on the 5th percentile margin of safety (MoS_P5) relative to regulatory reference doses (RfD), pesticides were classified into risk categories: cyproconazole (MoS_P5=5.8), difenoconazole (MoS_P5=8.3), and metalaxyl (MoS_P5=4.6) as high risk; dimethoate (MoS_P5=38.1), imidacloprid (MoS_P5=21.3), and thiamethoxam (MoS_P5=81.6) as moderate risk; and abamectin (MoS_P5=142.8) and azoxystrobin (MoS_P5=599.2) as low risk. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that residue concentrations in the relevant edible matrix and pesticide degradation rate in the plant are the primary determinants of human health risk, while stem-sap partition coefficients showed negligible influence. Compartment-specific analysis revealed that water intake risk is dominated by Cwater and TSCF, while pulp intake risk is dominated by Cpulp and LogKow. These findings indicate that while some pesticides present acceptable safety margins, compounds with prolonged plant half-lives (cyproconazole: 49.3 days; difenoconazole: 73.7 days) warrant regulatory scrutiny. The probabilistic approach identifies risk scenarios potentially overlooked by deterministic assessments, providing a more robust foundation for food safety management in the coconut production chain
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Derechos de autor 2026 Ecotoxicology and Environmental Contamination
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